Sealed: The Draft Format (OTJ Early Thoughts)

Pre-Format Ideas

Early results

Deep Dive into Drafts 1 & 2

Summaries of Drafts 3-9

Higher-level Format Thoughts

Two green spaces

Non-green control

My first article was a deep dive on learning draft formats with almost no OTJ-specific content. Let's turn that around today and recap my early experiences in Thunder Junction through the framework I laid out before. Don't worry, there will be plenty of theory as well towards the end!

Early Ideas

Before I talked about the importance of having theories/ideas about a format going in to test. Having lots of these lets you be flexible in your early drafts and draft whatever's coming to you, while also taking opportunities to learn about the format. I'll admit I wasn't quite as dialed into spoiler season for Thunder Junction as I was during AC5 prep for MKM, but I'm still a limited sicko, so of course I had thoughts. Here's what was on my mind going into the release on Arena:

Green looks like the best color and has a ton of fixing; "green soup" decks splashing bombs might be quite dominant

The set's power level feels quite high/pushed, which typically incentivizes playing cheap cards and means expensive cards really have to justify themselves (see: Cube)

Plot as a mechanic is super interesting, because the inherent downsides are quite high (missing a whole turn cycle with a creature is a huge cost), but the payoffs are quite strong

The set feels quite bomby, but the "crime lands" dealing damage also push it in an aggressive direction, so going under bombs with cheap linear aggro may be the best strategy if you don't have them yourself

Crimes should be easy to commit, but the payoffs are underwhelming

The UW "don't cast spells from your hand on your turn" space seems difficult to set up, but the answer may be that fully committing to it gives you a good deck

Mercenary tokens are basically 1/1s and not worth more than half a card

Counterspells will still be good despite plot punishing them a bit, even "taxing" counters like Phantom Interference

Fell the Mighty looks like an "awkward wrath" that's bad in limited, but it's actually quite a powerful value spell (this one courtesy of me wanting to sideboard it in a lot during prerelease)

Results so far

Here are the 9 drafts I've done as of writing this piece. I have a 59.0% game winrate (below my lifetime Bo1 average of 61.6%, but within margin of error / typical for early on in a format). Color-wise, I've drafted...

White 5 times

Blue 4 times

Black 5 times

Red 3 times

Green 5 times

(as main colors), and...

Base-2-color 4 times

Base-3-color 5 times

(Though most of these 3-color decks definitely had 2 colors they would choose as their "base" if given the option)

There's not much to learn from this summary data, but I think it's important to check in case there's anything drastic that stands out. Biggest takeaways I can see are that I'm slightly inexperienced with red, and skewing a bit towards 3-color decks (or 2-colors with heavy splashing at least).

We'll learn a lot more by diving deeper into individual drafts, so let's go!

First Draft: UGwr nonsense

https://www.17lands.com/draft/ba32430888f74727a0ff7687eacbb748

Quick note: these draft breakdowns are meant to be followed along with a separate 17lands tab open (linked above). I may reference card names without linking to them or showing images, but they should all be cards that show up in the logs at the spot I'm referencing if you're unfamiliar and need to read. I'll link to any cards I reference that aren't present in the logs.

Let's go through the draft portion and I'll point out decision points where you can tell this is my first draft of the format and I'm trying to learn/test theories:

P1P1 I go with a card that seems like a clear bomb, not many decisions here

P1P2 I'm taking a flexible land - Since my bomb is green, I'm definitely planning to test out the "multicolor green nonsense" strategy by taking most lands I see out of weak packs.

P1P4 I'm again taking a land over some possibly stronger cards because I want to stress-test the strategy of taking lands highly. I do this again P1P6, P1P7, P1P8

P1P9 I'm taking Emergent Haunting over some other decent cards because it's an interesting card that needs to be built around to make it work. I'm seeing if I can hybridize my multicolor green theory with my "commit to not casting spells on your turn" theory.

Early Pack 2 goes largely according to the script I've set up so far (multicolor green X not casting spells on your turn synergy space). Pick 5 I think I should have taken Fblthp, an interesting and powerful rare that plays well in this strategy, but I was too focused on the land. Mistake!

P2P6 I take a Thunder Salvo over Patient Naturalist because I'm trying use the lands I drafted early to be in a multicolor deck. This helps me figure out if the common removal is "worth splashing". Same logic next pick.

P3P1 taking the interesting rare over the potentially better uncommon Sphinx. Do the same thing next pick (wrath I have a theory about over Gryff)

P3P3 maybe should have been the rare, but I was interested in Nimble Brigand as a card with lots of crimelands

P3P11 clearly, neither me nor the rest of the pod understand the power of the GW 2-drop yet

At the end of my first draft, I'm left with a solid deck that could have probably been better if I was disciplined and stuck to drafting the good bant stuff being passed to me. However, with this deck I'm testing out a few theories that I intend to pay attention to during gameplay:

Operating on lots of taplands is a fine way to curve out

My flash subtheme is enough to support cards like Emergent Haunting and Wrangler of the Damned in a "hybrid" way, despite not being UW

Cards like Thunder Salvo and Irascible Wolverine (good, but not broken commons) are worth the splash if they fit well into your plan

Fell the Mighty is worth maindecking even if you're not specifically building around it

Having significantly more 3-drops than 2-drops might be a significant red flag that this deck won't perform as well as it seems

Conduit Pylons is indeed good in this style of deck

Game 1 was an interesting one for Fell the Mighty. It was definitely awkward, but also able to deal with my opponent's Magda before it went off. I'm not sure I played correctly with it either. Didn't feel under much pressure from what seemed like a linear aggro deck.

Game 2 was a standout game for Fell the Mighty, and a small tick in favor of the wolverine being worth the splash

Game 3 made the case for my plot cards being well worth it for setting up big turns

In Game 4 I had one of the sickest turns I've had in a while, and my "pass the turn" synergies overpowered even a very strong board full of good creatures from my opponent (though noting that without that start I could easily have lost -- opponent's GW deck looked really strong)

Feeling great so far!

Game 5 was a frustrating loss where I got out-tempoed by UB. This was the first time my deck felt clunky and like the power of my lategame wasn't worth the cards not exactly fitting together synergistically. Still, more "one of those losses" than something to index heavily on

Game 6, another brutal 17-turn loss where my opponent had original Oko in play for at least 10 of the turns. The takeaways from this game were actually that I was shocked how well my deck could grind against one of the best cards printed in the past 10 years - More of a positive signal than anything.

Game 7 I was shown the power of Fblthp and Lazav, but was able to put my opponent under enough pressure and leverage a late Fell the Mighty to get there. More points for Fell!

Game 8was a loss to "clunk factor" - an important signal that this type of deck was definitely susceptible to losing to the linear aggro decks if it stumbles.

5-3 overall in the first draft, and a lot learned! Main takeaways were that there is definitely plenty of power in this type of deck, and enough consistency to carry you through an event, though definitely some weakness. Fell the Mighty theory is alive and well. The red common splashes felt worthwhile. The taplands felt fine, but the lack of 2-drops could have been improved on.

I will definitely be revisiting this "goodstuff" space... but not before trying some others!

Second Draft: BR "let's see how far the common synergies get me"

https://www.17lands.com/draft/d1b73e957ac243a8906dd79ff5d71e2e

Don't worry, I'm not going to be going through all 9 drafts, but I do think the first two are good illustrations of how I'm intentionally trying to map out space early on in a format.

Draft portion:

P1P1 I'm taking Tinybones because it's an interesting mythic I won't get many chances to try and maximize, despite thinking it's likely worse than the two white and one blue uncommons. It's also in a color I haven't drafted yet!

P1P3 Armadillo is likely the "correct" pick, but I want to stay away from the green goodstuff space if I can help it and try to draft something different.

P1P6 Skewer the critics might be better than the Coyote, but I haven't played with the Coyote yet

End up with lots of BR 2-drops to round out pack 1, and now I know my lane: Let's test out linear 2-color aggro and see if the common creatures are good enough to make this deck tick.

P2P3 I'm taking a crimeland not to hedge towards splashing, but to see if picking lots of these up is good with crime synergies

I get passed two Hellspur brutes late pack 3, which makes my Desperate Bloodseekers more awkward since now I care about outlaw payoffs. Noting that this card, while it looks like a very pushed common, might be pushed because the creature type is holding it back.

This deck is very different from my first! The main things I'm testing here are:

Which 2-drops feel the strongest in this hybrid "outlaws-crimes" space?

Which removal spells are best at answering what I need to in a tempo-positive way?

Does this deck have enough "juice" to compete into the lategame?

Does having this many 2-drops allow me to run over the greedier decks?

Game 1 is against another aggro deck, and while I'm pretty outclassed in the early game, they luckily run out of gas and my 5/4s start taking over. Still don't consider this a great showing though.

Game 2 I punt by not killing my opponent's saddle creature in response to their Wylie Duke, but it likely wouldn't have mattered anyway as I get buried by their curve out with recursion to get him back later on. Not taking much away from this about my deck, but noting that GW has felt powerful both times I've faced it.

Game 3 my At Knifepoint does a lot of work to get me past another decent looking GW deck.

Game 4 I probably should have killed their 3/3 flier on turn 3, but was too focused on getting "value" with the At Knifepoint. It almost cossts me the game but I'm able to scrape it out. I think a better UR build would have killed me there. Hellspuir Brute was impressive.

Game 5 I'm able to pressure my opponent who stumbles on mana despite having significantly better cards than me -- A clear point in favor of the "play cheap cards, put them under pressure" approach.

Game 6... I don't know what to even say about this one, man. I'm shocked it went 16 turns with all the bombs, but at least I got a good tweet out of it... https://x.com/rcondon17/status/1780380302369587634

Game 7 I get taken down again by the GW menace. At this point, I can't tell if the deck is busted or just the card Wylie Duke, so I'm interested in trying to draft this at some point to learn.

4-3 in the end, and while there were some bright spots, this run felt a lot less impressive than the first. I'm not yet convinced that common synergies and a good curve are going to be enough in this format, which does worry me a bit.

I'll save you guys the detailed summaries of the next 7 drafts, but here are the highlights:

Draft 3

https://www.17lands.com/draft/3917f60cdc964a78b94b1d32eb313c8a

My first trophy, and it came through a sketchy manabase + bombs + LOTS of removal. Aligns with my experiences in the format so far, that it's possible to get run over, but the greedy decks are usually consistent enough to win any games where they don't stumble too hard... as long as they can answer the slew of bombs on the other side.

Draft 4

https://www.17lands.com/draft/63a659e70e4d47bbbabf2c435807667b

2-3 due to major pilot error (see: https://x.com/rcondon17/status/1780585200272994618), but the deck felt very strong.

Draft 5

https://www.17lands.com/draft/700b5260446a466fab87008cc6fab03c

Another dip into RB aggro, this time trying to go the 1-drop route. Let's just say it was not super successful, despite having some very strong bombs. Turning me way off of the "go low with commons" strategy.

Draft 6

https://www.17lands.com/draft/f7d77f3704a34acbbfac44c5f529ee56

This was, by far, the strongest deck I've had so far in this format. It went 2-3 due to...

Attempting to play a long game without knowing my opponent had Villainous Wealth in their deck

Keeping a 3-lander without green on the draw that never drew a forest in 8 turns

One of those games where you just kinda lose because they have the disenchant for your artifact bomb

Sometimes great decks lose! But I'm also taking notice of this being a great deck without TONS of removal, and doing worse than I expected. If this keeps happening, it might be a sign, but for now, I'm chalking it up to variance.

Draft 7

https://www.17lands.com/draft/6d814a3caa1c435c870b34953d9c46a7

This deck felt quite good, despite my creature curve being very medium. Fractured identity is obviously awesome, but in general just having lots of removal and tempo plays felt like it gave me a lot of dynamism in the games. My losses were all very close games where I felt like I could/should have gotten there, and I ended up 4-3

Draft 8

https://www.17lands.com/draft/cab0bb3935254db78c6b7aa8f02a869d

My turn to have the villainous wealth!! Card was awesome, and the rest of the deck supported it effectively. Noting a really cool deck I played against in game 5 - UB crime mill, which seemed quite effective and I will be on the lookout for in the future.

Draft 9

https://www.17lands.com/draft/59c5d870102142f7ae410b5065d5ad5e

Finally, it's my turn to draft GW! Noting that my first pick here was a Rakdos, but I quickly shifted into the open lane and ended up with what the early data is telling us is the best deck in the format. Confirmed good, got the trophy!

Higher-Level Format Thoughts

So where has all this explorative drafting gotten us -- What's working for me in this format, what should you draft if you're trying to win right now, and what's left to explore?

To some extent, it's in the title -- The best decks I've seen so far in this format feel like really strong sealed decks more than draft decks. They're piles of good cards and removal, with the occasional streamlined, yet beefy creature curve thrown in there. My biggest takeaway so far is that there doesn't seem to be a clear substitute for having the most powerful cards -- You need to be drafting to maximize your deck's inevitability, because there aren't enough tools to effectively "go under" the best "greedy" decks, much like sometimes happens in sealed. My two attempts at (non-green) low-to-the-ground, traditional "draft" aggro decks filled with common 1-and-2-drop creatures failed pretty miserably, and while it's still very early, that wasn't a promising sign.

The interesting part is that if there is a successful "aggro" core here, it looks like it's the green (& white) saddle shell. I don't think we're very used to green stompy-style decks being the true "pressure" end of a format in modern limited, but that might be what's taking shape, at least early on. Among 2-color decks without a splash (which tend to be the more aggro-leaning decks in limited because they're not reaching into other colors for lategame staying power), we can see that GW, GB, and RG are dominating at the moment. If you want a streamlined, consistent, "Cards that Affect the Board State"-style deck that can curve out and beat bombs, it seems like green may be the place to be:

Now, the interesting part about this is that green was also the place I/we thought we should be when thinking about these multicolor "goodstuff" decks in the weeks leading up to release. Green has some very strong common & uncommon fixing, and in a format with a common dual land cycle and 4 different bonus sheets, cementing yourself into green seems like, on the surface, the best way to keep yourself open to whichever bombs you end up opening in packs 2&3 (much like the strategy I preferred for MKM).

Could both be true? Can green support multiple aggro drafters and multiple "goodstuff" drafters at a single table? I think so -- Green in OTJ is one of the most surface-level powerful colors we've seen in limited in a long time. Even though these decks are pretty different from one another, if all of the commons are good and there are enough cards that support each "pole" to not cannibalize each other, I think there could very likely be multiple strong green-based archetypes in this format that, in large ways, exist independently of each other.

Going forward, I think it's going to be important to figure out how to get into each of these spaces, and how to distinguish between them...

Should I be first picking an Aloe Alchemist or a Spinewoods Armadillo?

How valuable are the crime lands to each deck? Do the aggro versions want to splash?

Do the splashy versions want to play something like Drover Grizzly if they're leaning on green fight spells?

How bad is it to end up in a murky space between the two?

As people get wise to the power of green, it's only going to get more important to know which cards belong where and what signals you're actually getting during a draft to know if a certain green space is open.

What about everyone else? Surely there are other things to do in this format than green, green, green. Knowing how to draft when the obvious lanes are occupied is huge, and luckily, if two of the more obvious lanes are in a single color, that leaves a lot of space for navigation.

So far, I've been unimpressed with low-to-the-ground aggro in red and black, and I don't think blue has the cheap creatures to pressure any better. White has some good early-game stuff, but pairs best with green in that regard. It's definitely worth more experimentation, but from what I'm gathering as of now, I don't think the answer to green decks is to try and go under them.

Instead, I think the answer is to go deeper into the control space. If you check out drafts 3 and 7 above, you can see that I've already had success with multicolor "goodstuff" decks that are not green-based. Even my first draft mainly had green because of the 2x Ornery Tumblewaggs -- Without them, it easily could have been built as a jeskai control shell.

These decks have felt powerful even though I didn't arrive at them intentionally -- The way I got into them was through a heavy prioritization of removal, bombs, and cards that generate value on their own without help. Removal feels like the most crucial part of this equation -- Modern limited just has too many unbeatable cards, and the fact that there is so much fixing available in this format means your opponents will be playing all of them. The good news is that the OTJ designers clearly had this in mind, and most of the removal in this set is quite capable of answering things - you just need to make sure you have it.

We were locked in on green as the home for greedy decks that picked up whatever bombs they could get because green has the best common fixing (by a mile), but what I'm starting to see is that there's enough fixing going around to not make leaning on green a necessity. Of course we have stuff like Silver Deputy, but there's also Bandit's Haul, Oasis Gardener, and a whole cycle of common dual lands (pssst: the green drafters are going to be taking the green ones first!).

I think blue has a very important role to play here, despite seeming early on like the least powerful color. One additional way to add "fixing" to your manabase is to add card draw and filtering, and that's where blue shines. Cards like Canyon Crab, Nimble Brigand, and Metamorphic Blast are strong enough to add consistency and card selection to your deck without giving up too much in terms of board presence.

The next thing I'm interested in exploring is how far we can push the synergies in these decks. After all, removing your opponent's stuff is literally a mechanic in this set! So is plot, which intentionally rewards you for buying time in the early game, often with 2-for-1s. That UB crime-mill deck I played against seemed very strong, and so did the "draw-go" synergies built into that first draft.

What happens if we commit hard to one of these synergy spaces, while still making sure to pick up plenty of removal, so that we have a value engine meant to take over as we pick off our opponents' most powerful "goodstuff" cards?

I'm not sure yet, but I'm excited to find out.

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